This is the first part of
the problem. This slide shows the worldwide growth in automobile population. In North
America and Western Europe, the number of automobiles is growing at slightly less than
twice the rate of the human population. But in the developing world, growth is almost
exponential because of expanding economic growth. Remember when things were manufactured
in Japan in order to get it done at the lowest possible price. Then after Japan’s
economy awakened and the cost of labor went up, low-cost manufacturing moved to Taiwan.
Today it’s Cambodia, Thailand, and China. What happens is that heavy industry follows
cheap labor around the world, which improves the local economy. And one of the first
things they buy with their newfound wealth is a car. So in the developing world, car
populations are increasing more in proportion to the growth of the economy, not the growth
of their population. They already have plenty of people. All they need is a job so they
can buy a car.
But the slide only shows the population of cars - not the total motor
vehicle population. By 2020 there will be well over 1.1 billion motor vehicles in the
world! If they all lined up and drove past you at the rate of one vehicle per second, it
would take 35 years for 1.1 billion motor vehicles to drive by. And if they lined up
bumper-to-bumper for the drive-by, the line would extend 130 times around the world.
That’s how many motor vehicles we’ll have to keep supplied with motor fuel in
year 2020. And that’s how many motor vehicles will be manufacturing atmospheric
pollutants. And the number will still be rapidly growing.
I’ll give you a superlative, just because it boggles the mind - but
don’t ask me if it’s likely to happen - I can’t envision how it could. The
U.N. expects population to stabilize at around 10 billion people. If the numbers do reach
10 billion, and the world’s economy keeps improving to the point that everyone owns
cars at the rate of Americans in the 1990s, there would be 6 billion cars or about 8
billion motor vehicles in the world - over ten times more than today. And if everyone
drove like Americans in the 90s, that would suck the entire Middle East oil supplies dry
in about 5 years.
But back to reality, and something that we can actually deal with. Today, the
transportation sector is almost totally dependent on petroleum motor fuels. With modern
emission controls and fuel formulations, gasoline-cars have become pretty clean.
Controlled emissions have been cut by about 95 percent in the last 20 years. But on a
global scale, recent gains could be wiped out within a decade or so because of the
increased numbers of cars in the developing world. And emissions of greenhouse gases,
mainly CO2, will go right through the ceiling in the next 20 years, unless we
dramatically reduced energy consumption. And if we continue with today’s upward
spiral in oil consumption, we’re headed for an enormous transfer of economic power
and wealth to the OPEC nations.
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